Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations

➡️ Hamas – Israel Ceasefire Agreement - Enduring Peace at Last?

As of January 15, 2025, officials from both sides reached a final draft ceasefire agreement. The deal contains conditions for a hostage/prisoner exchange, a six-week ceasefire, and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. Joyful celebrations erupted in Gaza and around the world as the ceasefire deal took effect on January 19.

What are the Key Terms of the Ceasefire Agreement?

The framework agreement consists of three interconnected stages of 42 days each. The final aims include -

• The release of all Israeli detainees in the Gaza Strip, civilians or soldiers, alive or otherwise

• The freeing of agreed-upon numbers of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli penitentiaries

• Sustainable calm and permanent ceasefire

• The withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza

• Massive long-term reconstruction of destroyed areas

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PHASE 1

The first phase starts with the temporary cessation of military operations between both sides and strict conditions on air operations. Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas, and more than one million Palestinians will be allowed to return to their places of residence. Accommodation and shelter must be provided for those who lost their homes during the war.

Military sites and installations must be dismantled in the areas where Israeli forces are no longer permitted. Freedom of movement will be granted in all areas of the Strip, and humanitarian aid will be permitted without obstacles. All restrictions on travel and goods will be lifted.

Sufficient quantities of humanitarian aid, relief materials and fuel will be provided to begin the reconnection of electricity supplies, the removal of rubble, and the rehabilitation of hospitals, water supplies, sewage systems, communications, roads, and bakeries.

An agreed-upon schedule of detainee and prisoner exchanges will take place over the course of the first phase. Further discussions are set to begin shortly on the terms of phase 2.

PHASE 2

Specific details are yet to be agreed upon; however, it will focus on the continuation of sustainable calm and the continued exchange of detainees and prisoners between both sides. Complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip is expected.

PHASE 3

Specific details are expected to be agreed upon during phase 2. It is likely that at this stage, a complete exchange of prisoners and hostages is to be completed, including the bodies and remains of those deceased. The Gaza Strip reconstruction plan will be implemented, which will span a period of 3-5 years. This will include homes, civilian facilities, infrastructure, and compensation for those affected.

Who are the Key Mediators in the Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations?

International support in reaching the final ceasefire agreement came from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar, who mediated the long-running efforts to end the War in Gaza. After coming close to deals on many occasions, their latest rounds of talks finally proved successful.

Important individuals in the negotiations were -

• Israel - David Barnea, the head of Israel's spy agency, took the lead role from the side of Israel with support from Ronen Bar, the head of Israel's Shin Bet security agency. Bar handled the specifics relating to the prisoner and hostage exchanges.

• The U.S. - Brett McGurk, ex-President Joe Biden's top Middle East adviser, was responsible for putting together the draft after hearing discussions between the two sides. Steve Witkoff, President Donald Trump's special envoy to the Middle East, met separately with Netanyahu and Qatari Prime Minister Al Thani to help secure the deal. Without heavy pressure from Trump, Netanyahu may never have agreed to the deal.

• Qatar – Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and his foreign minister led the mediation efforts and was a key communicator with Hamas throughout.

• Egypt - Hassan Rashad, the director of Egypt's General Intelligence Agency, was an important liaison with Hamas throughout the talks.

• Hamas (Palestine) - Khalil al-Hayya, the head of Hamas' political bureau and chief negotiator, communicated through Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

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Ceasefire in Gaza: A Turning Point or a Temporary Pause?

As celebrations take place around the world and thousands of displaced Palestinians make their return to Northern Gaza, the question on everyone's mind is whether the ceasefire will hold. Violations from both sides have reportedly already occurred, but the first of several planned hostage and prisoner exchanges have successfully taken place.

This first step has brought much optimism; however, the situation remains fragile and highly vulnerable. Great mistrust from both sides and their willingness to keep to the deal could be the crux as to whether progress moves beyond phase one and towards a permanent end to the conflict and a potential two-state solution. Support from the international community is crucial during this pivotal opportunity for permanent peace and stability.

Political tensions in the Israeli government emerged on day one as far-right minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced his retirement in protest of the deal. Israel's finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has threatened to do the same if phase 2 goes ahead. Netanyahu's resolute promise of total victory has previously justified his commitment to waging war and helped him prolong his time in office.

By proceeding with the deal, Netanyahu will likely face a parliamentary election. Continued war would postpone his potential political downfall. The assertiveness of Trump's approach to ceasefire could be interpreted as a potential threat to the Israeli leader's political survival.

If Netanyahu refuses to proceed into phase 2, he is risking U.S. support to Israel in this critical time. We may witness further negotiations as a way to delay the implementation of the next phase and a potential Israeli election.

There is overwhelming support in Israel towards the ceasefire deal, with 72% of Israelis in favour. Almost the same number support a parliamentary election as soon as the war officially ends.

Other concerns include rising tensions and unrest between Israeli and Palestinian communities, particularly in the West Bank, where local hardline factions may oppose certain terms of the ceasefire deal. The IDF and Hamas are also historically unpredictable.

Regional partners of Israel and the U.S. are all working hard to ensure the deal is fully implemented and progresses to the agreed stages. Stay tuned for further updates.

Author: Rachael Mellor 27.01.25 licensed under CC BY-ND 4.0

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